Here’s a tip for Meteorite for Top 1,000

[Batw]

I am very unhappy with this game so I am sharing what little I know about landing in to top 1,000 position. This is a rule of thumb using an estimator (eg think regression analysis).

At the end of each night in the Event, say 12:00 am or midnight VALERIA time (also PST), take 10% of the 25th placeholder’s GMs and then add 20% of the 75th placeholder’s GMs. The sum of those 2 numbers will be a good indicator of 1,000th place. The problem is that top finishers are hoarding their ingredients and don’t alchemize until the last day and skews the final results but the rule of thumb is still robust enough to give a good estimate.

One of the biggest problem of this game involves public mobs, how there are fewer public mobs today (vs a year or two years ago) and how pronounced the effects of health vampires. During Events like Meteorite, public mobs don’t stay public very long, which ruins the gaming experience for a lot of people (including me). Our guild and other guilds (to remain nameless) struggle with keeping lands in LoM to allow our guild members to have access to mobs to hit. We went landless in the last Meteorite and expect to do so in this latest Event as well. A land in LoM may generate 3 mobs and each mob is 11 legendary drops assumes no one overhits so that only accommodates at best 33 legendary drops.

I don’t understand why DECA won’t increase LoM lands to 6 or 7 from the current 5. I also don’t understand why DECA won’t automatically generate mobs hourly to give many players a chance to hit public mobs. In fairness, FENRIR has sufficient health for soloing for many players and FENRIR can be summoned unlike Draculia.

This lack of public mobs in Meteorite has been going on for 3 to 4 years based on my opinion. And since the first Meteorite, it’s always a few hitters disproportionately killing off the limited public mobs.

[Bandigerbolls]

I my guild, we have about 20 players willing to share monsters with each other during the events. Collusion like that helps, but finding cooperative people in a game where you beat each other up can be difficult.

[Batw]

I took a screenshot at 11 pm Valeria time (not staying up late since I drastically reduced my commitment to this game).

25th was 140 GM & 75th was 62 GM

The black box model says take
(0.10 * 140) + (0.20 * 62) = 26.4 GM for the estimated 1,000th placeholder.

However, we know the raw data is incomplete due to a number of extreme LSI builds who did not alchemize their ingredients. Take Apollo, he is nowhere to be found in the top 100 leaderboard.

Therefore, the above raw data overestimates the 1,000th placeholder. There is missing data of players who historically end up within the top 75 places.

I would adjust the leaderboard position by 4 to 7 places, eg look at 29th & 79th place and look at 32nd & 82nd place.

29 was 130 GM & 79 was 61 GM so the model predicts 25.2 GM for 1,000th place

32 was 120 GM & 82 was 60 GM for 24 GM.

So I would guess 24 to 25.2 GM for 1,000th place.

Keep in mind, people have limited stockpiles of full energy & stamina potions and may affect today’s (and next few day’s) results. Then you have players (like myself) who wait until the weekend to get ingredients while chasing green & red crystals. That is up say: One day’s raw data does not a trend make.

Summary: This is a naive black box model to help players guess the 1,000th placeholder. It’s just an estimate using math, eg the curve fitting of the Power Law. I am using two points in the curve to estimate convexity. Ideally, you want to use the Taylor series but that is over my head.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law

[Batw]

Nice article if anyone is interested comparing power law distribution vs normal distribution (aka bell curve).

https://capitalaspower.com/2019/10/v...distributions/

The reason why the Meteorite distribution of the leaderboard follows (or tries to follow) the Power law distribution is due to legendary chest awards.

There are 3 main “kinks” in the curve in the top 100 places in the leaderboard.

The kinks occur at
10th place with 5 legendary chest spins (LCS)
25th place with 4 LCS
75th place with 3 LCS

There is incredible pressure by spenders to land within the top 10th to 75th places. Pang was the last non-extreme LSI to win 1st place and now 1st place goes to an extreme LSI build with Apollo being the existing record holder for most GMs alchemized.

[Batw]

Here is another perspective, eg using a benchmark.

Mar 8, 2022, 00:00:00 to Mar 15, 2022, 20:00:00 is 7 full days plus 20 hours so it’s (7 * 24) + 20 = 188 hours.

If you assume 171 GM (a good estimate from last Meteorite) as the 1,000th placeholder for this Meteorite, you get a rate of 171 / 188 or roughly 0.91 GM per hour.

At the 36 hour marks (12 noon Valeria time today), an unbiased estimate might be 36 * 0.91 = 32.7 GM.

The naive black box model isn’t too far off. The black box model is really stupid because it doesn’t know anything. It only relies on the 25th & 75th placeholders (I am currently using 32nd & 82nd placeholders since the raw data isn’t reflective of reality).

[mrveg]

Anyone think itll just keep gettin higher and higher? People thought the last one got higher due to the winter event giving out lots of potions. Should this event regress back a little or will it still just rise as people are higher level now and whatnot.

[Batw]

Anyone think itll just keep gettin higher and higher? People thought the last one got higher due to the winter event giving out lots of potions. Should this event regress back a little or will it still just rise as people are higher level now and whatnot.

You look at the underlying trends:
- continued Layla, MK creep, avg Layla, MK continue to increase
- extreme LSI builds have more energy, stamina, etc than last Meteorite
- players continue to get better at gaming the Event
- few players continue to wipe out public mobs quickly (just look at the daily Monster Leaderboard)

Take a look at Apollo, you will be surprised how close at the race in the top 5 to 10 finishers.

Then you have massive inflation (like in the USA) so players will spend less.

DECA needs to fix Meteorite if you want lower GMs in the Event leaderboard

[Batw]

You look at the underlying trends:
- continued Layla, MK creep, avg Layla, MK continue to increase
- extreme LSI builds have more energy, stamina, etc than last Meteorite
- players continue to get better at gaming the Event
- few players continue to wipe out public mobs quickly (just look at the daily Monster Leaderboard)

Take a look at Apollo, you will be surprised how close at the race in the top 5 to 10 finishers.

Then you have massive inflation (like in the USA) so players will spend less.

DECA needs to fix Meteorite if you want lower GMs in the Event leaderboard

You can get Meteorite drops using both Energy & Stamina. I don’t have a good model to explain drops from healing and read somewhere it was 1 drop on average in 400 energy.

For stamina usage from hitting mobs, the relationship continues to be on average 6 drops per 1,000 base stamina.

So that part did not change. So what was the biggest change in the game? It was the introduction of FENRIR, which is now the mob with highest health that you can summon with energy.

FENRIR has 5 billion health vs Chromus at 3 billion so that is 2 more billion health per mob summoned. So now, there is more mob health capacity = more meteorite drops (other things being equal), respectively. This allows more drops from hitting mobs for the same number of mobs summons so this bottleneck of meteorite drops was relieved.

Draculia has more health than Chromus but you need a Draculia orb and none of my mini’s has the orb but can summon FENRIR.

It should be obvious once DECA introduced FENRIR, you have GM inflation in this Event. I normally farm Vargs in Meteorite to get dmg essence but I can see players farming FENRIR to get health essence (108 health essence per drop vs 50 for the Shadow).

[Batw]

I am pretty much done with Meteorite since I am about almost done with my 80 GM target. I have 41 GM with an associated rank of 741.

The first question is why is the Black Box model off assuming 41 GM is at 741th place.

- the naive Black Box model gives an estimate of 100 GM to be ranked 1,000th; to be clear this is an a priori estimate since it had no idea what the GMs would be for ranks 25th & 75th placeholders.
- the alternative approach is using an a posteriori actual result of roughly 171 GMs for the last Meteorite. This is a LINEAR approach, eg using linear interpolation or approximation. 171 / 188 hours = roughly 0.91 GM per hour. We had four (4) full days so 4 * 24 = 96 hours have passed and 96 * 0.91 = 87.4 GM.

Using 87.4 GM as an alternative guideline, 100 GMs isn’t that far off.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_pr...d_a_posteriori

The second question might be why are both models so off given the 741th placeholder only requires 41 GMs. People may be wondering why 41 vs 87 or 100.

- The answer is that we don’t have transparency so we must rely on an estimate and explain why the estimates of off. Image if the game automatically alchemize each available GM, then the leaderboard rankings would be both accurate and timely (subject to 10 minute lag).
- The problem is players don’t alchemize their GMs so my 741th place is woefully understated or inaccurate.

The alternative method is simply a straight line method without any consideration to the current GM race.

The naive Black Box model uses two points on the curve. Since the curve flattens over time, you would think one of the points would at the 100th placeholder as it is the closest leaderboard position to rank 1,000.

The Black Box model is stupid; it doesn’t know anything; it can’t even predict the 25th or 75th placeholders and won’t work with the necessary inputs.

The third question is why trust the Black Box model in the first place?

To be answered later.

[mrveg]

You look at the underlying trends:
- continued Layla, MK creep, avg Layla, MK continue to increase
- extreme LSI builds have more energy, stamina, etc than last Meteorite
- players continue to get better at gaming the Event
- few players continue to wipe out public mobs quickly (just look at the daily Monster Leaderboard)

Take a look at Apollo, you will be surprised how close at the race in the top 5 to 10 finishers.

Then you have massive inflation (like in the USA) so players will spend less.

DECA needs to fix Meteorite if you want lower GMs in the Event leaderboard

Yea, I figured as much. Honestly it's dumb because you'll continue to have LSIs price normal players out of it. They should just give out legendaries guaranteed once you hit a certain amount of meteorites (like 100 or so). I 100% guarantee you'd get a lot more people to spend rather than having people compete the current way. You'd probably have 2000+ players try and get 100 meteorites rather than the current 1000 who compete for top 1000. As the LSIs get stronger, anyone who isn't an LSI build will quit while LSIs spend almost nothing to get to the top 1000 lol. Horrible gaming mechanics if DECA's goal is money.

[Batw]

Admin issue: Game updates Leaderboard every 5 minutes vs previous every 10 minutes. So the lag is 5 minutes.

At 12:20 AM Valeria time (PST), 51 GM was ranked 924

At 2:40 PM Valeria time, the same 51 GM was ranked 984.

[gogoo]

Admin issue: Game updates Leaderboard every 5 minutes vs previous every 10 minutes. So the lag is 5 minutes.

If you're talking about the Meteorite leaderboard, it's always been updating every 5 minutes (since event #1). At least that's what the rules are saying since event #1: "Leaderboard will refresh every 5 minutes".

[starbearer]

So, where is it likely to end up? 10% of 25 + 20% of 75 gives a number well in excess of 200 GMs at the moment. I hope it won't go that high (or higher)...

[Batw]

So, where is it likely to end up? 10% of 25 + 20% of 75 gives a number well in excess of 200 GMs at the moment. I hope it won't go that high (or higher)...

4 Hours left in Event so (7 * 24) + 15 hours (1 less due to stupid daylight saving time) = 183 hours. 183 * 0.91 = 166.5 if it tracks the prior Event’s pace.

Black box is currently returning 263.5 meaning the game is dying: We have an extremely steep Power Law distribution.

Good example of extreme LSI killing this game.

[Batw]

I my guild, we have about 20 players willing to share monsters with each other during the events. Collusion like that helps, but finding cooperative people in a game where you beat each other up can be difficult.

We managed to keep at least 1 land this time. However, it involved constant supervision by the GM & Officers.

Our guild is made up of Monster Hunters and it takes us 6 to 13 hours to clear a land. This time, I was actively salvaging land as soon as it came out of collection period.

We had people sharing mobs in the priority list as well. Fenrir was a nice addition to the list.

I still hate this Event. The Dev should rename it give LSI builds free legendary chest(s) event.