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Meteorite Event tracking

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  • #16
    I saw your post estimating the target at 170 prior to my decision to abandon the chase, but neither of us knew if that would be enough.


    • #17
      Originally posted by JefferMC View Post
      I saw your post estimating the target at 170 prior to my decision to abandon the chase, but neither of us knew if that would be enough.
      You are missing the point. In graduate school, we deal with a priori and a posteriori basis all the time.

      What I wrote was to ask in the FIRST FEW DAYS, not when the Event was ending or close to ending.

      In Economics, when you undergo an investment (spending sum certain resources for a sum uncertain outcome is an example of an investment), you should form an expectation BEFORE committing resources.

      Supposed you had an idea or guess about what it took to get in the top 1,000 place. And suppose you knew historically it was 140 to 150 GM. You would then try your best to handicap (or in my case use econometric models to estimate) the outcome. For example, you knew or should have known that players were flooded with pots from the Winter Event. You yourself stated you had abundant pots.

      If you had asked early, you would have another opinion to help create daily mileposts or milestones to judge whether 170 GM was going to be met.

      Because of my statistics background at the graduate level, I was able to use the Power Law to monitor the rate of change in top 25 to 75 positions on the leaderboard on a daily basis vs expectations, respectively.

      Summary: You are correct on a priori basis I did know 170 GM would be threshold; but you fail to understand that I used statistically tools to monitor the rate of change each day such that I was more accurate toward the end of the Event when the OP made it created this thread.

      If you re-read my original response, I shared my reasonings as to why 170 would be a good benchmark to use. The Power Law told me that this function would be flat at the 1,000 observation, eg the delta between the 999th & 1,000th finisher would be small.

      You have the ability to monitor daily changes in the leaderboard vs your ORIGINAL EXPECTATIONS.


      • #18
        When I started this Event, I guesstimated 180 GM as the bogey. This was my expectations (no one knows the future on a priori basis) so we go by expectations.

        As DH Fear & Felix we’re blowing out the public mobs, it was very clear to me it had a negative impact (their effects negatively impacted my 100-member guild as well as other guilds I had communications with). During the Event, the situation was so terrible that our guild decided not to have any land in LoM to offset this new DH Fear & Felix effect. No land = no hero crystals for 100 people in our guild!!! Each mob = 11 legendary drops of no one overhit so there wasn’t enough mobs from LoM.

        It was very clear (at least to me) the 180 GM expectations was not going to be reached due to lack of public mobs. I did not know when the Event started DH Fear & Felix would have such a pronounced negative effect on hitting public mobs.

        Over time, I was able to reduce the 180 ORIGINAL estimate (my expectations) to a more realistic 170 bogey told the end of the Event.

        While DH Fear & Felix was an unknown variable (at the start of the Event), it did not change how people make investments: Make an expectation regarding the outcome, monitor the daily results vs original expectations, and make adjustments if need be.


        • #19
          I did not have a good concept at the beginning of the event what the line would be. I guessed 125 and set that as my budget at the outset; I had failed to account for the inflation as a general case that of course everyone was awash in potions. It was nice, while it lasted, to be in the top 600 after spending the 80 that I knew that I was absolutely going to spend to get the crystals. I kept spending a bit, hedging my bets about whether 125 was going to be enough.

          Then you posted your guess of 170. Which was, I see now, on day 8, so yes, we were near the end. At that point I had plenty of time to decide to continue or not. Had I known you had a crystal ball and could predict with an accuracy +/- 1 days in advance, then I would likely have purchased additional FP and gone for 170. But neither you nor I knew that how accurate your guess would be. And that uncertainty halted my climb.

          Damn, I only took one Graduate level statistics course. Sure wish I had taken as many as you did, so I could be as humble as you.
          Last edited by JefferMC; 02-10-2022, 09:04 PM.