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Done with Treasure Island, it's broken?

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  • Done with Treasure Island, it's broken?

    So, when Treasure island started this time, chests were dropping at a reasonable rate. But the throttle seems to have been massively changed in the last 24 hours or so - in three sessions at different times today, I've used between 60 and 70 hits of 100 stamina, on monsters I'd be hitting anyway. Got 2 (TWO) chests.... (I also tried some 200-stam hits, in case they were now the 'sweet spot' - used about 10 or those, got ONE chest. Unsatisfactory.....)

    Earth to Gaea - At that rate of return, I'm not going to join ANY monsters except ones I need to kill anyway. This event is broken as far as I'm concerned. I'll save my FP's for something else.
    Regards,
    Lord M

  • #2
    Originally posted by Lord M View Post
    So, when Treasure island started this time, chests were dropping at a reasonable rate. But the throttle seems to have been massively changed in the last 24 hours or so - in three sessions at different times today, I've used between 60 and 70 hits of 100 stamina, on monsters I'd be hitting anyway. Got 2 (TWO) chests.... (I also tried some 200-stam hits, in case they were now the 'sweet spot' - used about 10 or those, got ONE chest. Unsatisfactory.....)

    Earth to Gaea - At that rate of return, I'm not going to join ANY monsters except ones I need to kill anyway. This event is broken as far as I'm concerned. I'll save my FP's for something else.
    1. You need to look at the **average** stamina usage per drop. It appears steady at 1,500 stamina per drop per my experience (I am using 3 toons during this event).

    If you get lucky and get say 1 drop per 600 stamina, it would be wrong to assume subsequent drops are also at 1 per 600.

    if you get **unlucky** and get 1 drop per 3,000 stamina, it would also be wrong to assume subsequent drops at 1 per 3,000. Btw, if you use 100 stamina per hit and get unlucky, it can be painful.

    Gaea never disclosed the drop rates. You almost never hear people whining about drops rates being too good, e.g. the chests are dropping too frequently and ruins the event [sarcasm intended]. But, you almost always hear about drops rates being crappy. The goal is to compare your actual drop rates vs expectations (which Gaea never disclosed).

    2. I like TI and stockpile my chests until I get 65. The free spin every 23 hrs is a good award for doing nothing.

    3. Here is my advice: spend money you can afford to lose and not be upset. If you are getting upset at randomness, then spending FP in this event is not a good value for you.

    Cheers.

    Comment


    • #3
      The drop rate should be around 1 TI chest / 1775 Stamina (on average).

      This result is based on 1406 chest drops with about 2.5 million stamina used, details on this thread: Treasure Island chests drop rate - Determined! (roughly)


      You can definitely get bad lucky and not get a single drop while using 5000 stamina or more. It's always been like that (and the first hit and first few thousands stam used have always brought more drops - it changes quickly to the average drop rate stated above).

      The drop rate being not good enough for me, I don't even use many Full Potions during TI. I'd rather keep them for Meteorite.
      Last edited by gogoo; 10-14-2020, 10:23 PM.

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      • #4
        I understand that you don't always get the "average" (mean) rate for any given sample - i.e. if the average is (as stated) somewhere in the 1 chest per 1400-1775 Stamina range, that does not guarantee that if you spend 1775 Stam you'll get exactly one chest drop. Sometimes you will; sometimes more; sometimes less. So, yes, the standard statistical variance applies; got that. And I'm not getting upset at randomness....

        But where I differ is: I've observed my drops during previous TI's, and they've run (roughly, I didn't keep records or anything) in the neighborhood of 1 chest per 800-1000 stams (and I read somewhere in the forums that 100-stam hits worked best; perhaps that wasn't the case, but is what I've been doing for years). And it wasn't at all uncommon to get an average of 2 per 1000 for extended periods ("average", note). I don't recall a single case where I was near 5000 Stam spent at one stretch before getting a chest. So, this is significantly different than my past experience....

        Maybe - maybe - I've had a run of prior good luck that has stretched over many TI events during those years, and it's now just statistically correcting itself. If so, so be it <shrug>. But maybe - maybe - something has actually changed under the covers. Either way - if this is the way it is, whether that be "new" or not, it's not enough return on the FP investment for my taste. YMMV, of course (although at least gogoo seems to agree :-) ).
        Regards,
        Lord M

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        • #5
          If you were getting drops for 800-100 stamina, you are the one that was stealing my odds. It is just luck and you are now on the other side.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by gogoo View Post
            The drop rate should be around 1 TI chest / 1775 Stamina (on average).

            ....

            The drop rate being not good enough for me, I don't even use many Full Potions during TI. I'd rather keep them for Meteorite.
            My drop rate this time is closer to 1 TI chest/ 3000 Stamina. Definitely not worth wasting potions.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Bandigerbolls View Post

              My drop rate this time is closer to 1 TI chest/ 3000 Stamina. Definitely not worth wasting potions.
              Yep. This is what I am seeing. After the first 15, it's about 1/3000 for me. I just used 5 potions and got zilch. Enough for me tonight. Not enough monsters on the board to hit either.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by danellem View Post

                Yep. This is what I am seeing. After the first 15, it's about 1/3000 for me. I just used 5 potions and got zilch. Enough for me tonight. Not enough monsters on the board to hit either.
                1/4000 to 1/4500 for some on average.
                Very bad for LSI build, not dropping.

                Comment


                • #9
                  About two hours ago, my drop rate had a sharp increase. Anyone else have that happen, or was I just on a lucky streak?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Bandigerbolls View Post
                    About two hours ago, my drop rate had a sharp increase. Anyone else have that happen, or was I just on a lucky streak?
                    The layman’s term is “streaky”. Unfortunately, streaky goes both ways: getting lots of drops quickly or going on a long drought.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by baoyutaohuagong View Post

                      1/4000 to 1/4500 for some on average.
                      Very bad for LSI build, not dropping.
                      I play with a main and two mini’s. I get 576 (24 x 24) stamina from natural regen per day for all three with the caveat my main has a 15% buff on no-stamina hits due to MK.

                      I am getting a consistent 1 drop in roughly 1,500 stamina when looking at all three toons. Each is using 20 stamina hits.

                      The bad part is my main and one mini is running cold while the remaining mini is on fire!!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        You know the smaller the stamina used the lesser the chances? With 200 stamina hits i have great results. 100 Stamina is also great but too time consuming for me.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          TI is just such low value it's not worth actually trying during. I just look at it as some extra freebies and keep plugging away toward my goals.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I only have 2k stamina, I just save up any free roles that I get. Any Full Stamina potions I have are going towards the Demon Chimeras, until I have them all.

                            Thoughts on obtaining Demon Chimera equipment

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Dark Nathaniel View Post
                              You know the smaller the stamina used the lesser the chances? With 200 stamina hits i have great results. 100 Stamina is also great but too time consuming for me.
                              If you are averaging 1 drop in 1,775 stamina with big hits and I am getting 1 drop in 1,500 stamina with small hits, then why are you saying small hits have “lesser” chance?

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