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Treasure Island chests drop rate - Let's try to determine it!

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  • Treasure Island chests drop rate - Let's try to determine it!

    Edit:
    Follow-up thread: Treasure Island chests drop rate - Determined! (roughly)


    I'm trying to determine the drop rate of TI chests with the help of Kroki and his insane stamina usage.

    He started TI at level 8667. He has 10k stamina, and his Layla-MK alliance gives him 28,4795% chance for no stamina cost, so on average with each level up he will get about 12,849 stamina to use. Ofc sometimes he'll get more, sometimes less, but since he'll probably level up a few hundred times during the event it should roughly average out.

    He almost doesn't need refills to level up. He'll try to count them anyway, but if a few are missed if won't change the results that much.
    Also, he uses stamina before energy so he'll use all his stam every level.

    Stamina from natural regen will be negligible (3,456 stamina over the 6 days).

    So basically we'll see at what level he is at the end of the event, multiply the level difference by 12,849, add the few thousands stamina from full refills, and we'll get a relatively precise idea of how much stamina he has used over the course of the event.

    Divide that by the number of TI chests he has gotten in total, and we should have a rather precise idea of the TI chests drop rate.


    Btw, he almost exclusively uses 200 stamina hits. I don't think that matters as it seems likely to me that the drop chance is linearly related to the stamina used on a hit, but we really don't know for sure.


    Note to self:
    Maybe remove the 6 or 7 "daily" free spins from his total chest count, if necessary.


    Does anyone see any flaw in this?


    ----------------------------------------------------
    Main current TI event thread:
    Treasure Island is back! - Feb. 2020 - TI #15
    Last edited by gogoo; 02-13-2020, 04:13 PM.

  • #2
    Poor guy, getting by with such limited resources, makes me really appreciate how lucky I

    Oh wait

    Comment


    • #3
      As a little appetizer:

      For now he did 10 lvl ups using 2 stamina refills, and got 82 chests

      10*12,849 + 2*1,000 = 130,490 stamina

      130,490 / 82 = 1,591 stamina per chest drop
      Last edited by gogoo; 02-07-2020, 12:36 PM.

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      • #4
        Very interesting. Yeah, that's obvious that he should use 200 stamina hits when you have over 10k stamina. Imagine time spent if he would use 50 or 20 stamina hits lol.

        I also want to have big stamina, but I think think I'll go for 10k. I'm thinking 7k or 8k should be enough. After that I would prefer to add those extra skill points to other sections.
        Last edited by Ditendra; 02-07-2020, 01:49 PM.

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        • #5

          I do have a question here. That 12800 stam would give about 30000 ish exp max.. At the moment, for me, it takes about 25000 for one level, but I am level 2300, way less than Kroki.. What exp would it cost for him to level, I was thinking it would still take a LOT of refilling, but maybe I am wrong?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by The Resurrection View Post
            I do have a question here. That 12800 stam would give about 30000 ish exp max.. At the moment, for me, it takes about 25000 for one level, but I am level 2300, way less than Kroki.. What exp would it cost for him to level, I was thinking it would still take a LOT of refilling, but maybe I am wrong?
            He also has a lot of Energy 😁

            Basically, it takes 12.5 XP more each level to reach the next.

            So at level 8667, it requires about 108,337 XP to reach the next level. So yeah... Basically 110k XP.

            Before MK and Layla, even having a full energy build wasn't enough to level up consistently for free. Not at all. Now Kroki and Overlord (and other players) can get almost 30% more XP from their energy and stam, and that's enough to allow that.


            ------------

            Kroki should get on average 28,268 XP from his stam. That leaves 80,069 XP to get from energy. To get that, if he uses exclusively the Cefka quest (1.75 XP / ene), it means he needs to have about 35,612 Energy (80,069 / 1.75 / 1.284795).

            Side note: at his level he got 43,330 SPs from level ups only.
            Last edited by gogoo; 02-07-2020, 11:07 PM.

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            • #7
              I'm slightly concerned. At the start of the tournament yesterday, I got 3 chests relatively easily.

              Since then however, and continuing into today, despite throwing 7k stamina, with various 50, 100, 200 hits, I've got none. My mini hasn't got anything either. Are others experiencing a significant decline in drop rate? I was beginning to think tournament was recalled, because nothing was dropping .


              PS - My first post since the new forum, I notice that member participation in topics has perceptibly reduced?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: forum activity - I can't say I have noticed a sharp decline. Activity seems to have been going down steadily over the years...
                Last edited by zserg; 02-08-2020, 05:31 PM.
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by starbearer View Post
                  I'm slightly concerned. At the start of the tournament yesterday, I got 3 chests relatively easily.

                  Since then however, and continuing into today, despite throwing 7k stamina, with various 50, 100, 200 hits, I've got none. My mini hasn't got anything either. Are others experiencing a significant decline in drop rate? I was beginning to think tournament was recalled, because nothing was dropping .

                  Here's a copy-paste from the wiki, which might explain your situation:

                  • Some reports seem to indicate that you should in average get a TI chest about every 1500 stamina spent, but proper testing wasn't conducted and this number comes more from a "feeling" than from actual data. As the drop rate is low, while you may sometimes be very lucky and get several drops on consecutive small stamina hits, you may also not get any for thousands of stamina spent.
                  • Many players have reported that monsters drop a lot more chests in the first days (or even the first 12 hours) of the event, while later a lot more stamina is required to earn a chest. However no proper testing was conducted. What is more likely is that you get more drops in the first few thousands stamina you use, no matter when you use it. Moreover it seems that the first hits you will do in the event have a very high chance of dropping a TI chest as long as you haven't gotten at least one drop.
                  https://castleage.fandom.com/wiki/Tr...n_.26_Strategy
                  Last edited by gogoo; 02-08-2020, 06:12 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by gogoo View Post


                    Here's a copy-paste from the wiki, which might explain your situation:



                    https://castleage.fandom.com/wiki/Tr...n_.26_Strategy
                    Hmm, I experienced this yesterday itself, after the 3 chests. Same today, I can't imagine it'd be this bad. Never saw anything as low in previous editions of Treasure Island .

                    As a side note, I had some chests left over from the previous edition, I hope the apparent drop in rates doesn't take that into consideration, how many I have that is, and adjust itself accordingly .

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by starbearer View Post

                      Hmm, I experienced this yesterday itself, after the 3 chests. Same today, I can't imagine it'd be this bad. Never saw anything as low in previous editions of Treasure Island .
                      The drop rate has fallen into the abyss for me, also. Doubt if I'll hit the 15-chest reward, because I'm not wasting potions for this sucky rate.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Yep, the drop rate is pure garbage, spend over 6000 stam yesterday and today, 1 measly chest. My 'feeling' (no proper testing done) is that it was a worse drop rate for me in the last TI event, and then this one is just the same (as if the event was tweaked last time to turn it into a new miserly level of low). In TIs before these last two ones, I could reach about 32 chests with hitting monsters, and then I was willing to spend to get the 3 left for the general - with these past 2 TIs, I can't even get to 20 chests. I guess that's the plan - the current set-up is designed to make you spin for chests because it's a guarantee you'll get them, because monster hunting drops are so flaky and unreliable.

                        The game seems to be only fun and catered for guys like Kroki or Overlord and similar stam/energy builds (not sure what they're called - is it dinosaur?) - if you've got a hybrid or PvP build then get stuffed is the message (e.g. Colosseum has been tweaked to 'improve it' i.e. turn it into a hideous grind). 😜 I dunno why the devs don't understand that games are supposed to be FUN?

                        UPDATE - OK, so now I can shut up 🤐 I just hit a few more monsters and spent probably another 5000-6000 stam and 10 chests dropped! Blind chance is damn annoying 😝
                        Last edited by Froo; 02-09-2020, 02:55 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Froo View Post

                          UPDATE - OK, so now I can shut up 🤐 I just hit a few more monsters and spent probably another 5000-6000 stam and 10 chests dropped! Blind chance is damn annoying 😝
                          I hit some too, unlike you, however, I got squat. Chance of definitely annoying.

                          For Colosseum, there should be a "yield" button, instead of waiting for a timer to count down, it just becomes too much when you've a high health, high defence opponent, who is inactive, whom you can't defeat, and there's nothing to do but wait.

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                          • #14
                            You if I was an evil dev I would put a factor based on dmg:stam ratio.... To stop levelers advancing too much! 😈

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by gogoo View Post


                              Does anyone see any flaw in this?


                              ----------------------------------------------------
                              Main current TI event thread:
                              Treasure Island is back! - Feb. 2020 - TI #15
                              You can get a "ballpark" with this method, and it can give you a large sample.

                              One detail you left out, that is moderately significant, is that he actually get about 30% more bonus on his 30%. But just to be clear, you are not doing an analysis relative to experience you are doing an analysis relative to the number of level ups.

                              Just stick with the ballpark math. 13,000 stamina per level. 65 @ 200 stamina hits per level. so [levels gained * 65]/ TI spins (for hits per spin) or [Levels gained * 13,000]/ TI spins (for stamina per drop).
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