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clarify about Barbarus

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  • #16
    I’ve maxed out maalvus at level 80 with 4 stars, giving me 20% crit hit chances. I use him as a secondary because of his superior att/def. If I were to use therian, I would get good monster attack, but maalvus does both crit hit chance and high att/def power. That means I get to use my barborus as my main gem in an alliance for the same reason as mentioned before in this thread. Finally, that leaves demon warrior as the third gen in the alliance. He is essential and I don’t know of a better gen to put in that third spot because he’s so valuable.
    Last edited by dragonfly522; 02-02-2023, 06:25 PM.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by dragonfly522 View Post
      I’ve maxed out maalvus at level 80 with 4 stars, giving me 20% crit hit chances. I use him as a secondary because of his superior att/def. If I were to use therian, I would get good monster attack, but maalvus does both crit hit chance and high att/def power. That means I get to use my barborus as my main gem in an alliance for the same reason as mentioned before in this thread. Finally, that leaves demon warrior as the third gen in the alliance. He is essential and I don’t know of a better gen to put in that third spot because he’s so valuable.
      People on the forum didn’t understand variance in 2014 and people on the forum still don’t understand variance in 2023. Then people don’t understand variance in a portfolio with 3 assets aka 3 monster hunting generals in an alliance.

      The Expected Value of a portfolio is its weight average return, eg weighted-avg dmg per stamina.

      The Expected Variance of a portfolio IS NOT the weight average of the variance. You need to include covariance effects.

      See this link: https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/portf...iance-formula/

      The variance of 3 assets is:

      “Again, the variance can be further extended to a portfolio of more no. of assets; for instance, a 3-asset portfolio can be represented as,

      Portfolio variance formula = w12* ơ12+ w22* ơ22 + w32* ơ32 + 2 * ρ1,2 * w1 * w2 * ơ1 * ơ2 + 2 * ρ2,3 * w2 * w3 * ơ2 * ơ3 + 2 * ρ3,1 * w3 * w1 * ơ3 * ơ1”

      That is why you NEVER have three generals with the same buff in the alliance:
      1/ You lose the benefits of zero covariance
      2/ You have the maximum penalties of alliances with same buff.

      If your generals have buffs that are INDEPENDENT of each other, you maximize the alliance by reducing the variance of the portfolio. For example you wouldn’t have Moonlight Dragon & Demon Warrior OR Kaiser & Dolomar OR Barbarus & Maalvus, in the same alliance, etc.

      Dolomar vs Barbarus is the old “Bird in hand vs birds in the bush” argument (bird in hand has zero variance with birds in the bush have variance aka Barbarus [after being charged up] gives a fixed dmg buff while Dolomar is bird in hand, it’s critical buff is only valuable when it shows up). This STUPID debate being going on since 2014 when I first joined because people don’t understand variance and basic portfolio theory.

      Given the same Bird in hand vs bird in the bush argument, an alliance with independent buffs are incredibly valuable given their sum certain benefits.

      The best alliance (for most people) would be
      1/ Moonlight Dragon critical dmg & critical chance
      2/ Barbarus guarantee dmg
      3/ MK (free hits)

      This is very easy to prove using Calculus: because you set the F.O.C. to zero and solve the equation.

      You won’t use Sahar or Vancy any General with + Monster because of diminishing returns thus provide a cap to the benefit.

      I use Barbarus - Dolomar - MK because farming essence is just as important as getting my drops.

      Summary:

      1/ Be wary of people who use personal opinions to make recommendations. Instead TRUST the math.

      2/ You can verify the math is correct by conducting as close to scientific tests as you can: Hit the same monster under similar conditions using difference Monster hunting alliances. You can choose EV (eg dmg per stamina) as your benchmark or EV/Var aka mean variance as your benchmark.

      I am risk adverse so I choose EV/Var because it helps me plan how much (baseline) stamina I need. Critical hit generals are only as valuable as you get a critical hit. And critical dmg generals like Demon Warrior is highly dependent on a critical hit.

      Once you see the math in action, you can see the bovine manure artists. And no, the math is not easy since you need to use Calculus and especially optimization aka differential calculus.


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      • #18
        “Dolomar vs Barbarus is the old “Bird in hand vs birds in the bush” argument (bird in hand has zero variance with birds in the bush have variance aka Barbarus [after being charged up] gives a fixed dmg buff while Dolomar is bird in hand, it’s critical buff is only valuable when it shows up). This STUPID debate being going on since 2014 when I first joined because people don’t understand variance and basic portfolio theory.​”

        Want to correct a typo:
        - Barbarus is “bird in hand” because after being charged up, you max the fixed damage buff
        - Dolomar is “bird in the bush” because critical dmg hit is not guaranteed

        No one is disputing Dolomar will have higher dmg per stamina (eg higher EV) but:
        - higher damage per stamina comes with variance
        - higher damage could also mean over-damage, which is waste. If you only needed 2 million damage remaining for a legendary drop, getting a 16 million damage off a critical is a waste (because 14 million net damage or over-damage is useless for that mob, especially in the case of Demon Chimera). Dolomar can result in a lot waste.

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