Egg Promotion Win

[TheDoctor]

So today I cash in my 100 eggs and get my 30 Favor Points, right? After a little while I start thinking about what to do with them. I tell myself that I'll give 3 spins to Defyler's chest simulator and if Zurran comes up on those three spins then I'll take a single roll at the Annihilator chest.

I take the first spin with Pooh's simulator and see:


I ALMOST talked myself out of taking the actual roll on the chest, but finally figured "What the heck" and hit the button. What came up?????




WOW! I'm VERY happy right now!

[khanvalescent]

Wow.

Any of our math people able to calculate the odds of this? Is it 1.25% of 1.25%?

Edit: Nevermind, saw you did 3 spins. Still, impressive and congrats

[smokeytripod]

have i ever told you i hate you?

lol congratz anyway

[Sukra]

gratz...i better try those chest sims...

[FireFox]

Wow!. Nice. You must be extremly lucky!

[EagleOtto]

1.25% of (1.25%+1.25%+1.25%) = 0.046875% chance of happening, which is about a 1 in 2133 chance.

[Lotak]

The odds of getting Zurran in 9 rolls = 1 - odds of not getting Zurran in 9 rolls
This equals:
1-0.9875^9 = 10.7%

The odds of getting Zurran in the following roll is 1.25%, therefore the total odds of getting Zurran in any of the first 9 rolls AND the 10th roll is:
0.107*0.0125 = 0.13375% or approximiately 1 in 750.

That's pretty good odds.


Getting Zurran in the any of the first 3 rolls AND the 4th roll is:
0.04629% or 1 in 2160

That's really good odds.

Congrats =)

[Asulgard]

After seeing this I decided to do the same and got a Frost Tiger for myself

[mudunpapat]

crap, this thread make me want to click !! noooooooo ...

[King Hrothbeort]

For all you geeks who want to calculate the probability of this event: 1st we clarify what is the event:

Getting Zurran as one of the three rolls on a triple roll on Pooh's chest simulator and then getting Zurran on a single roll in the game.

The easy one to calculate is that the odds of getting Zurran on a single roll is 1 in 80 or 1.25%

The odds of getting zurran as one of three rolls is 1/80 + 1/80 * 79/80 + 1/80 * 79/80 *79/80 (the chance of getting him on the first roll + the chance of getting him on the second roll if you didn't get on the first roll + the chance of getting him on the third roll if you didn't already get him). Which simplifies to 12799/512000 or about 2.5%

To get the odds of both events happening multiply them together:
1/80 * 12799/512000 = 12799/40960000 or about 0.031%