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Thread: Anniversary Chest drop rates - Are we getting fooled?

  1. #1

    Default Anniversary Chest drop rates - Are we getting fooled?

    The advertised drop rates for the Anniversary Chest are:

    Legendary: 1% Chance
    Epic: 7% Chance
    Rare: 14% Chance
    Uncommon: 35% Chance
    Common: 43% Chance


    However, Eveline on Discord has been gathering drop rate data and the actual drop rates, from 529 rolls, are far from the advertised ones.


    Here are the latest numbers:

    Update on Actual Drop Rate: 529 chests Legendary 0.0% Epic 6.4% Rare 6.0% Uncommon 19.7% Common 67.9%


    Screenshot of her spreadsheet:
    https://i.imgur.com/Ys9DrcM.png


    Even though 529 rolls isn't that much, I find it hard to believe that the difference between the advertised and actual Common drop rate for instance are only due to the sample size.


    Anyway, feel free to add your own data on this thread, so that we can get an even bigger sample size.
    Last edited by gogoo; 09-18-2019 at 04:08 PM.

  2. #2
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    Actual Drop / Rate: 18 chests: Legendary (0) 0.0% Epic (2) 11.1% Rare (2) 11.1% Uncommon (4) 22.2% Common (9) 50.0%

  3. #3
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    Yeah, what I find odd is that I have seen several people saying they got even multiple legendaries, yet that data says 0.

    Maybe people reporting on discord were somehow a little biased to mostly report negative results ?

    Edit: the common % does seem a little high though.
    Last edited by zserg; 09-18-2019 at 04:30 PM.

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    3 chests, 3 common.
    ~VoV~

  5. #5

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    In this thread: http://www.castleageforums.com/cforu...iversary-chest

    someone stated as a guild they were 0 for 704, which is extremely rare as in ridiculously rare.

  6. Default

    Every time I have EVER said the advertised drops are much higher than the actual drops I get told:
    "You just don't understand statistics"
    "This can happen, it's just odds"
    "Others are getting the good drops, you just don't see it"

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by cat13 View Post
    Every time I have EVER said the advertised drops are much higher than the actual drops I get told:
    "You just don't understand statistics"
    "This can happen, it's just odds"
    "Others are getting the good drops, you just don't see it"
    You need to re-read zserg’s comments. I did not collect the data thus I have no opinion regarding the outcome. If someone made a mistake or mistakes, it greatly affects the results.

    0 success in 704 is 0.000845

    1 success in 704 is 0.00601

    2 success in 704 is 0.0213

    3 success in 704 is 0.0505

    So you can see how sensitive the result is based on one or two mistakes.

    And btw hansa did come to the forums to brag he got very lucky and got a bunch of Jera’s.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by zserg View Post
    Yeah, what I find odd is that I have seen several people saying they got even multiple legendaries, yet that data says 0.
    I think I only saw 1 on Discord and 2 here (including Da Wimsta who got 2, so that's 4 Legendary drops in total that I've heard of). So it's still not that big, and seems plausible to me that we got a data sample of 529 rolls with 0 Legendary.

    The players who showed / said they got a Legendary didn't give any numbers regarding the other tiers. For instance, Da Wimsta didn't say how many times he rolled, and judging by his rank on the leaderboard, he certainly rolled a lot.
    And we can't just include the 2 Legendaries from Da Wimsta in the data set if we don't know the numbers on what else he got besides that.


    Quote Originally Posted by zserg View Post
    Maybe people reporting on discord were somehow a little biased to mostly report negative results ?
    Maybe, but personally I was going to report anyway, had a bunch of free rolls on minis, and got results similar to those from whole data set we currently have:
    Total 85 rolls - 6 Epic, 5 Rare, 16 Uncommon, 58 Common
    Last edited by gogoo; 09-18-2019 at 07:40 PM.

  9. Default

    It's been 35 years since I did a paper on statistics, so correct me if i'm wrong. If the chance to get a legendary is 1%, chance of not getting one is 99% on 100 rolls. .99x.99=.9801 so ~98% chance of not getting a legendary on 200 rolls. and ~95% of not getting a legendary in 500 rolls. ~93% chance of not getting a legendary in 700 rolls, so there's still nothing odd about that. 10,000 rolls would give us reliable data on the drop rate of legedaries.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eveline Lems View Post
    It's been 35 years since I did a paper on statistics, so correct me if i'm wrong. If the chance to get a legendary is 1%, chance of not getting one is 99% on 100 rolls. .99x.99=.9801 so ~98% chance of not getting a legendary on 200 rolls. and ~95% of not getting a legendary in 500 rolls. ~93% chance of not getting a legendary in 700 rolls, so there's still nothing odd about that. 10,000 rolls would give us reliable data on the drop rate of legedaries.
    You are off with your calculations. The chances of getting a legendary are 1-(.99^n) where n is number of rolls attempted. Itís only been about 20 years for me and formal statistics.

    You have about a 60% chance to get a legendary in 100 rolls.
    Last edited by pull lead; 09-18-2019 at 09:33 PM.

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