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Thread: Leading Indicator to predict next US President

  1. #1

    Default Leading Indicator to predict next US President

    Indicator: “Poverty in US”

    The problem is measurement error: we have official definitions, we have measurements in absolute and relative level, etc but we don’t have one correct measurement so we are forced to rely on government statistics such as: CDC, the Census Bureau, etc

    “In 2017, there were 39.7 million people in poverty, not statisti*cally different from the number in poverty in 2016.”

    Source: https://www.census.gov/library/publi...o/p60-263.html

    That is one gov’t agency’s best guess at Americans living in poverty. Almost 40 million people who can’t eat right, have health care, are under constant stress because of their financial conditions, etc. So who are those 40 million people?

    A lot of them are single mom’s.
    Source: https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...pov_table4.xls

    And if you want to know who will vote for President Trump, check out this data source:
    https://www.census.gov/library/publi...mo/p30-04.html

    I like to deal with facts:
    1. America is a sick nation and it needs to take care of itself. What the average American wants IS NOT a handout, but a meaningful job so s/he can support his or her family.
    2. Wealth in America is concentrated in East Coast (aka Wall Street) and West Coast (aka Silicon Valley). Half of one percent in America controls the bulk of the wealth in America or huge inequalities of wealth distribution.
    3. The US has one of the lowest unemployment rates in history YET poverty in the US remains high. One inference is these “jobs” are low paying jobs that cannot lift Americans out of poverty.

    Watch the US Poverty Level. And keep in mind that President Trump started his term in office in Jan. 2017. The US is the richest nation in the world and we cannot take care of our own people. #Sad.

  2. #2
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    I see people who work two or three part time jobs. No benefits period. No Insurance, no sick pay, no vacation, no time off.

    Often they can end up working many hours and still can not get ahead.

    Whatever you do, don't get sick. Can't afford to go to the doctor and can't afford to miss work.
    ...Dwarven Miner - I found a free chest roll for ye, but I was ambushed by a Dev in the mine.
    Lil rascal made away with it...



  3. Default

    I agree that dealing with poverty will be a factor in the upcoming election, or any election really. It's a sad situation indeed that we aren't taking care of the people who are less fortunate in life.

    That said, I don't believe that data over 2017 alone is a reliable means to determine who will vote for who. I would be very interested to see the numbers for both 2018 and 2019 to see how the numbers changed. In 2017 the administration may not have had that much of an impact on these numbers yet and some of the measured effects could potentially even be contributed to actions taken by the previous administration.

    I know that in the past few years several measure were taken intended to stimulate job creation and payout of higher wages but as far as I'm aware none were truly effective at achieving this goal. The tax cuts for example, while some of the savings -were- used to implement some salary hikes, were mostly used to buy back stock instead. In fact, some companies were quite open about their intent to not use the saved money to create jobs or increase wages. Mind you, that is not to say that some job creation and/or wage increases did not happen at all because some of that absolutely happened.

    All said and done I believe that whether people will consider re-electing Trump based on this issue will depend on how effective his administrations actions have been in making their lives better. I would be very interested to see the changes in the numbers after 2017 together with the causes for any change in numbers. If Trump policies did indeed make a difference then that could swing those people affected by it in his favor. Of course if those policies didn't help them at all or very little...
    "Build a man a fire, keep him warm for a night. Set a man on fire, keep him warm for the rest of his life!" - Rev Sim

    "Gratuitous acts of senseless violence are -my- forte!" - Max

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    This is why I expect the federal minimum wage to be a huge issue in the next election. Mind you, I don't believe that a "minimum wage" will ever be a "living wage", regardless of how much it is, but that's not popular opinion.

    And once you raise minimum wage, you screw over anyone on disability or Social Security if you don't give them a reasonable cost of living raise as well. But since Al Gore's secret lock box is likely to self-destruct in 30 years or less, that creates a massive issue as well. The entire Ponzi scheme is likely to come crashing down, and the government will be three steps behind, as always.

    I'll vote against Trump for the sake of the Supreme Court nominees to come, but I really don't expect much else out of a Dem president, unless we can take the Senate AND keep the House all at the same time.

    Then again, I'm still too exhausted from the 2016 campaigns to get excited about 2020 yet anyway.

    Also disappointed that Mueller isn't running.
    Last edited by VersionsOfViolence; 06-20-2019 at 10:12 PM.
    ~VoV~

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    And let's not forget that the US is a country made up of 50 States and however many territories, each having multiple counties, cities, municipalities, whatevers, with government in each of those sharing responsibility for the lack or types of jobs in their areas/states.

    So if Mississippi sucks, and has sucked since the dawn of time, then it's something that the state and local lawmakers need to do something about.

    But that can't happen until the voters in Mississippi get tired of the status quo and do something about their politicians to start with.
    ~VoV~

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    I honestly don't see much point in debating actual issues one by one, in respect to the 2020 election. 2020 is more of a referendum on Trump himself. It's MURIKKKA vs Never Trumpers. The 83 Democrats running for the nomination will cannibalize one another until we hate them all anyway.
    ~VoV~

  7. #7

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    Well, by the facts presented by the OP, we should all want want Bernie. Case closed. Viva la Berne!

  8. Default

    Do you know what I like most about Bernie?

    The fact that if he ever were to win he would cause true bipartisanship to return.

    Because...

    1. The reps will not want -anything- to do with his plans as they deem him to be a scummy socialist.
    2. The dems, as was proven last election, are far more interested in maintaining the status quo and thus will -also- spit on most things Bernie would want to do.

    For the most part there will be a big loud no from both sides of the aisle on a lot of stuff and whether you agree with that or no doesn't change that actual bipartisanship coming back is already long overdue.
    "Build a man a fire, keep him warm for a night. Set a man on fire, keep him warm for the rest of his life!" - Rev Sim

    "Gratuitous acts of senseless violence are -my- forte!" - Max

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    I don't see bipartisanship coming back until the extremes of one or both parties are voted out and new Congressional leadership is in place.
    ~VoV~

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    I hereby nominate VoV as a running candidate for the President of the United States.
    ...Dwarven Miner - I found a free chest roll for ye, but I was ambushed by a Dev in the mine.
    Lil rascal made away with it...



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