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Thread: Arena XII Tracking Thread -- Hi Everyone

  1. #191

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Bagot View Post
    I believe John was upset that the spreadsheet used linear calculations telling people what the final scores would be based upon the same continuing trend.

    Of course these threads with the links to the spreadsheet ... broke it out in more detail, taking into account movement changes as the end of the arenas would approach.

    For all of John's complaining, he's never found a Safe Zone number that was breached in our regular thread estimates.
    I studied Inferential Statistics & Econometrics as part of my job function to help forecast the future: revenues, profits, valuations, etc. I’ve learned time series, transfer functions, linear programming, use of quatratics, including black box models, etc in my younger days. John’s 3-day moving average is technically called a single-step (one period), equal-weighted, (rolling) lagging 3-day MA but John doesn’t realize not all 3-day MA are the same!! So yes, I was an expert at forecasting future events in my younger days.

    I stopped using forecasting techniques because the forecasts tend to be bad when forecasting OUTSIDE the sample data (e.g. the future). In plain English, there is randomness in the data series and that makes forecasts hard. A point estimate is really hard to make.

    The key point is that the projections is a guideline to help people understand RELATIVE rankings, e.g. where they are relative to a milestone, guidepost, waypost, (trail) marker, etc. The finish line is clearly unknown but the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.

    Cheers.

  2. #192

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    281,510 - Legend Final score.
    "Mom, do you know how much those comics you tossed out would be worth today? I told you so."

    Army Code: FEAD56

  3. #193
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    phil
    Posts
    3,505

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    still going...
    for the meantime add me 5E51FD and this
    Pls do not hurt me... coz i know someone who knows someone that knows someone who can hurt you.

  4. #194
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Southern Ohio, USA
    Posts
    8,031

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batw View Post
    I studied Inferential Statistics & Econometrics as part of my job function to help forecast the future: revenues, profits, valuations, etc. I’ve learned time series, transfer functions, linear programming, use of quatratics, including black box models, etc in my younger days. John’s 3-day moving average is technically called a single-step (one period), equal-weighted, (rolling) lagging 3-day MA but John doesn’t realize not all 3-day MA are the same!! So yes, I was an expert at forecasting
    I have studied pompous ponces for 24 years and I suggest you may be a prime example
    Chimæra

  5. #195
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    phil
    Posts
    3,505

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    Arena is over, wait for next season! (Prizes will be distributed soon if they have not been distributed to you yet.)
    for the meantime add me 5E51FD and this
    Pls do not hurt me... coz i know someone who knows someone that knows someone who can hurt you.

  6. Default

    Legend 262,125 Hero 205,845 and 182,710

    *edit* the legend got honked down to hero after the final tally, the other two are still valid though
    Last edited by bliiy; 12-29-2018 at 03:10 AM.

  7. Default

    325,500 Legend.

  8. #198

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    Are the results final? Per chat, 4 from Guild - 291,250 Legend, 263,555 Legend, 243,335 Legend, 242,375 Legend. I suspect they may not have run a final tally yet.

  9. #199

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    Wonder if they are running SCRIPT programs to filter out "SOME" of the "inflation".

  10. #200

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomasj8 View Post
    I have studied pompous ponces for 24 years and I suggest you may be a prime example
    It’s not pompous. It’s high order math. It’s the MK effect: we have more players with MK and many with MK at multiple Stars. John does get this simple fact that MK gives up to, on average, 20% more tokens OUTSIDE of the original arena design. That is up to, on average, 20% more token WITHOUT spending FP’s.

    That is also why Elandal failed to grasp the gap inflation amongst EV & AV. If memory serves me correctly, Orlando won the first Promo with MK. Now, with so many months of the MK promo pack, AND the new promotion orb, the MK effect in Arena is more pronounced.

    SP: you’re entitled to your pompous opinion, no less.

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