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Thread: Arena XII Tracking Thread -- Hi Everyone

  1. Default

    Your Cheatin' Alt with apologies to Hank Williams

    Your cheatin' Alt
    Will make you weep
    You'll cry and cry
    And try to sleep

    But sleep won't come
    The whole night through
    Your cheatin' Alt
    Will tell on you

    When tears come down
    Like falling rain
    You'll toss around
    And call Devs names

    You'll walk the floor
    The way I do
    Your cheatin' Alt
    Will tell on you

    Your cheatin' Alt
    Will pine some day
    And crave the favor points
    You threw away

    The time will come
    When your scripts show through
    and your Cheatin Alts will tell on you


    Just a little levity over the sick bed of an Old Freind that made this old Vet's daze a little easier to bear in the last 12 years ... ,-) If it applies ... own it, if not enjoy it .... Hank williams would have loved this game on his way to chicago if IF he had had IOS back then. Good luck to all ... So glad to see this Arena end ... clicking for hours is not fun. But I NEEDS my SHINIES!

  2. #182

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tellgryn View Post
    John944615

    My post is not a prediction, that is the point I crossed over to AV rank.


    I played in the very first arena and can say it had the smallest gaps between rank level, but since that time the gap between 1st and 8th has become huge. In the 2nd arena the difference av and ev was large, the 3rd it became huge and this one is humongous.
    I understand your post is the actual crossover figure. My tirade is about why I kept wanting them to stop making daily and final predictions in past arenas and just report the actual numbers instead. A small error in numbers can lead to a large difference in the end and there were so many flaws in the predictions, e.g. like the one I stated about not taking into account that people start with 50 tokens instead of 10 tokens which over the course of a 22 day arena means that a person would have to spend around 450 fps to account for that one flaw alone which then compounds into later arenas as people use past results to try and determine the future results. Another flaw was they sometimes used the lowest number posted rather than the actual crossover number which at times would be a difference of thousands and one time it was around a 5000 point difference. They eventually corrected it, but the damage was done as the correction came late and many people scripted or used fps to get to the next day's target which then compounds into to future day's targets especially when using a 3 day moving average.
    Last edited by John944615; 12-27-2018 at 03:23 PM.

  3. #183
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Finland
    Posts
    6,953

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by John944615 View Post
    If there had been predictions like in the past, you'd see AV moving up 5000 to 10,000 points a day in this arena.
    Daily move of AV has been 30% higher than in last arena. 260 hours will lead to about same points at the end as 356 hours did a year ago. Note that the difference is 11k daily, more than your range of 5–10k points daily.

    So clearly lack of projections didn't do what you wanted, rather did the opposite.
    WARNING: THE POST ABOVE MAY OR MAY NOT CONTAIN SARCASM AND/OR IRONY!

    Elandal [FIN] ΛĢ 8218DD

  4. #184

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    The final prediction numbers are up guys. Thanks for all the data. Hope you all enjoyed the arena and stopping in here to see how it was unfolding. Hopefully next time Rachel will be in a place to be able to whip up one of her spreadsheets again. :-)

    I know what she does means a lot more than my pen and paper stuff.

    Hope everyone gets their desired ranks and "May the odds be ever in your favor" ;-)

  5. #185

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    Oh, and remember to come back with your final score and tier ... the toughest part to calculate for the future is the end.

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    Are these based on knowing we are going to have 4 less hours on the last day or on a full 24 hours?

    *edit* this is in regards to final estimates
    Last edited by bliiy; 12-28-2018 at 02:24 AM.

  7. #187

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    238,635 => Hero
    238,720 => Legend
    Last edited by gogoo; 12-28-2018 at 03:04 AM.

  8. #188

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    Quote Originally Posted by John944615 View Post
    I understand your post is the actual crossover figure. My tirade is about why I kept wanting them to stop making daily and final predictions in past arenas and just report the actual numbers instead. A small error in numbers can lead to a large difference in the end and there were so many flaws in the predictions, e.g. like the one I stated about not taking into account that people start with 50 tokens instead of 10 tokens which over the course of a 22 day arena means that a person would have to spend around 450 fps to account for that one flaw alone which then compounds into later arenas as people use past results to try and determine the future results. Another flaw was they sometimes used the lowest number posted rather than the actual crossover number which at times would be a difference of thousands and one time it was around a 5000 point difference. They eventually corrected it, but the damage was done as the correction came late and many people scripted or used fps to get to the next day's target which then compounds into to future day's targets especially when using a 3 day moving average.
    John, most of us are adults and can handle the consequences of our actions, e.g. to use the projections or not.

    When I was a supervisor in my last job, my subordinates would ask me for advice about applying to MBA programs and I gave the most sincere but blunt advice (some I told not to apply since they weren’t good enough for a top 20 program, and anything outside of a top 20 program would be a waste of money IMHO).

    It’s up the individual to use recommendations, advice, projections, projected stock prices, etc with a grain of salt.

  9. #189

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bliiy View Post
    Are these based on knowing we are going to have 4 less hours on the last day or on a full 24 hours?

    *edit* this is in regards to final estimates
    Because of the uncertainty of movement in the last 20 hours, for anything in the top 4 tiers I erred to the side of a normal 24 hour day.

  10. #190

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batw View Post
    John, most of us are adults and can handle the consequences of our actions, e.g. to use the projections or not.

    When I was a supervisor in my last job, my subordinates would ask me for advice about applying to MBA programs and I gave the most sincere but blunt advice (some I told not to apply since they weren’t good enough for a top 20 program, and anything outside of a top 20 program would be a waste of money IMHO).

    It’s up the individual to use recommendations, advice, projections, projected stock prices, etc with a grain of salt.
    I believe John was upset that the spreadsheet used linear calculations telling people what the final scores would be based upon the same continuing trend.

    Of course these threads with the links to the spreadsheet ... broke it out in more detail, taking into account movement changes as the end of the arenas would approach.

    For all of John's complaining, he's never found a Safe Zone number that was breached in our regular thread estimates.

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