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Thread: Arena XII Tracking Thread -- Hi Everyone

  1. #201

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    317,435 - Legend.

    I did not spend any FP but I do have 4* lvl 79 MK giving me, on average, 9.8% extra tokens. People need to under MK is a new variable and the concentration of high lvl multi-star MK’s are making their presence felt in EV & AV relative rankings. The max MK buff is 20% and that is huge.

    #Notpompous

  2. #202

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batw View Post
    Itís not pompous. Itís high order math. Itís the MK effect: we have more players with MK and many with MK at multiple Stars. John does get this simple fact that MK gives up to, on average, 20% more tokens OUTSIDE of the original arena design. That is up to, on average, 20% more token WITHOUT spending FPís.

    That is also why Elandal failed to grasp the gap inflation amongst EV & AV. If memory serves me correctly, Orlando won the first Promo with MK. Now, with so many months of the MK promo pack, AND the new promotion orb, the MK effect in Arena is more pronounced.

    SP: youíre entitled to your pompous opinion, no less.
    There is no "MK effect" that relates to this discussion whatsoever.

    Your observation on trends, and trends being your friend was legitimate, but the source of the points be it spending or free tokens really doesn't matter.

    The reason there is a push at the end is quite clear, it is the end, period.

    Nobody has failed to grasp anything, you're just wrong. MK may make it cheaper for some players, but 9.8 or 20% free arena tokens is not the issue.

    If anything the increase of low level AV and EV players makes a difference since they make it possible for some players to get more points per token, but it has only ever come down to one thing, a player's willingness to spend. In particular they are willing to spend to achieve a single category.
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    Quote Originally Posted by VersionsOfViolence View Post
    #1 it's not nice to be mean to ppl
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  3. #203

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    If there is another rank calibration tonight, before rewards are distributed, there are going to be many disappointed and upset players......

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Bagot View Post
    Oh, and remember to come back with your final score and tier ... the toughest part to calculate for the future is the end.
    Hero @ 202,400

    Kindly take note I only started playing on the 4th day, but tried to use all the natural regen tokens.

  5. #205

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    A start date would be cool next time i missed 37h....

    Made 240,100 points

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrUtAlls View Post
    A start date would be cool next time i missed 37h....

    Made 240,100 points
    You need to pay attention. What could have been.

  7. #207

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    I think some still aren't fully grasping why I don't like the daily predictions and the moving final predictions, so I'll give a simple extreme example. For simplicity's sake, we'll assume 20,000 entrants into arena. That means that there will be 400 AV in the final rankings. Let's say exactly 400 people decide to go for AV (we'll exclude EV's to make it simple as well). So these 400 people assume from past arena results that 500,000 points are needed to finish in AV so they decide to do all the arena work in the first day. That means after the first day, the cutoff for AV is 500,000 points. And then using the predictions, at the end of the second day, the cutoff for AV will be 1 million will be stated by the spreadsheet, and so on. So in the case of this arena of 10 days, the prediction model will say that 5 million points will be needed to finish in AV. But the thing is that only these 400 people are chasing that daily prediction. The predictions are what causes the inflation in scores needed for the ranking. It doesn't matter if the 401st person finished this arena with 499,000 points, but because of the prediction model, those 400 shooting for AV are all at more than 5 million points because they are chasing the predictions. But let's complicate it a bit more. People will not hit for exactly 500,000 points every day. Some will hit for 510,000 points, some will hit for 1 million to get ahead, and some will hit for 5 million points+ to get it over with, thus inflating the final predicted AV rankings to even much higher than 5 million points. This is the big flaw in this prediction model being used. Never mind that at the end, you could have gotten AV for 500,000 points, but because of the predictions, those 400 people are well over 5 million points. But then let's go to the next arena and then people see that say 7 million was needed in this arena to finish AV, so then these 400 people will say I want to do that 7 million on the first day, and then the cycle continues. Yes this is an extreme example, but it clearly points out why the daily prediction model and the daily changing predicted final AV score needed model is bad for arena and why it inflates scores.

    If they want, they can make a final prediction on the last day, but they shouldn't be making these predictions every day in the spreadsheets in arena because people chase the predictions. And when using a 3 day moving average, it just exacerbates the predictions. This is primarily because all the data isn't available and the outliers can't be removed from the predictions and the reasons for those outliers can't be explained by prediction model being used.
    Last edited by John944615; 12-28-2018 at 07:21 AM.

  8. #208

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    Wonder how many people dropped a rank after the midnight PST cross over.

    How long did it take for prizes to be awarded last arena? 8 hours?

  9. #209

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    Quote Originally Posted by John944615 View Post
    ...(lot of words, long sentences and thick paragraph.....)
    If they want, they can make a final prediction on the last day, but they shouldn't be making these predictions every day in the spreadsheets in arena because people chase the predictions. And when using a 3 day moving average, it just exacerbates the predictions. This is primarily because all the data isn't available and the outliers can't be removed from the predictions and the reasons for those outliers can't be explained by prediction model being used.

    What you are describing is nothing new. It is called greed. It is not the model fault. It stems from human greed. That is all.

    You can see this in real life as well, there is a concept that is called, the "tail wags the dog" (or sth like that, it has been many decades since my finance grad school days). It is the relationship between the stock option and the stock itself. Predict indicators would drive up the underlying assets due to people expectation, and in turn, drive up the derivative markets as well.

    There are many other examples, such as the housing market bubble in the US, the Tulip market crashed February 1637 (Netherland), etc.

    If you are going to blame the spreadsheet for arena points inflation, then you might likely blame every single problem in the world as someone else fault. The problem does not lay in the world but within each person. If you are not inherently greedy or have some capacity to limit yourself then no problem.

    I saw this arena was just too insane and I bow out early, b/c I don't want to chase and follow everyone else. The spreadsheet created by some good folks in this forum is only a tool, which you can choose to use it or not. When things get too out of hand, people says F.IT and walk away, and the bubble will burst; the cycle will start anew. It is part of nature, things rise and fall through peaks and troughs. The duration of the cycles might varies, but the trend is basically the same for all things in nature.

    TLDR: Do not blame the spreadsheet model; do not blame the people who help make the spreadsheet; blame yourself if you are not capable of self-restraint.
    Last edited by Dokkōdō; 12-28-2018 at 10:09 AM.


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  10. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zaturn View Post
    Wonder how many people dropped a rank after the midnight PST cross over.

    How long did it take for prizes to be awarded last arena? 8 hours?
    Dunno, I collected, was awarded 3 spins, but didn't get them, is that because the rewards haven't been given out yet?

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