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Thread: Arena XII Tracking Thread -- Hi Everyone

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    62405 < Gladiator < 62595

  2. #172
    Join Date
    Jan 2010


    Quote Originally Posted by Zaturn View Post
    Wonder what is the safe area for AV. Want to barely just slide into AV
    hmmm... AV first day was 56,000 with around 40k-41k ave on daily movement, so lets say 42k for 9 days so that would be 434,000 and add an additional of hmmm, probably another 20k for the last hour/s of extensive arena shootround... anyway, that's just my guess i myself is currently way more than that since i was afk a few days ago and have no idea how behind/close i was so i did a bit of spending.

    but if you may i just have simple advice to you, from a fellow forumite.. if you can hit over, just do it... i had twice experienced on being a rank below and learning i only need around 1k or 2k of points for the next rank... and God it was an awful feeling.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zaturn View Post
    EV, my guess, will be 775k-1mil+ heavy spenders domain.
    for EV... i highly doubt that it will only be 775k-1mil+ ... make it 775k + 1M = 1.7M
    for the meantime add me 5E51FD and this
    Pls do not hurt me... coz i know someone who knows someone that knows someone who can hurt you.

  3. #173


    Quote Originally Posted by dani2000 View Post

    for EV... i highly doubt that it will only be 775k-1mil+ ... make it 775k + 1M = 1.7M
    Atm, bottom of EV is well over 3X the amount of points of bottom of AV. There is just a lot of weird stuffs going on. I had to go give up on EV a couple days ago.

    Nemo vir est qui mundum non reddat meliorem.

  4. #174


    214,695 legend, I didn't notice the change from hero to legend, but, it wasn't too many hits before this
    Remember, if I was in your guild, you'd probably like me

  5. #175


    Quote Originally Posted by dani2000 View Post
    Whats Up Mike tickle attack.

    Merry Christmas to you and your family...
    Merry Christmas to you too.
    Remember, if I was in your guild, you'd probably like me

  6. Default

    Just stumbled across this:

    Alpha Vanguard (Rank 7) Army 1147

    You all should have just started a lvl 1 toon and Vanguard'd it up!

  7. #177


    lol nice 1 beats the level 700 i saw at rank 7

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    Av started at 428.4k today, yesterday it was 389k

  9. #179


    Quote Originally Posted by Tellgryn View Post
    Av started at 428.4k today, yesterday it was 389k
    Instead of using an arbitrary flawed prediction model (arena isn't a growth company and should not make assumptions like growth companies do to make forecasts (using 3 day moving averages is a very bad idea on forecasting arena because some people may have plans the next day and decide to account by spending some fps or scripting in more points in the previous day, so a 3 day moving average inflates predictions, especially when people are chasing the predicitons)) based on inaccurate numbers (daily numbers were inaccurate as well as not factoring in the fact the first day was more than 24 hours and not factoring into the fact that every target the first day was worth 100 points, not factoring in that everyone started with 50 tokens instead of 10 tokens, etc. Even that last fact means the daily predictions were inflated by 4000 points every day, so for a 20 day arena it would have inflated the predictions by at least 80,000 points) where people are chasing forecasts, you see this arena AV didn't increase any day and it didn't increase exponentially (it actually decreased) as in the past arenas. Instead of exponentially increasing in the final 3 or 4 days, the movement stayed consistent. That's why I kept arguing against those next day and final predictions in past arenas. Those predictions were what drove the AV and EV numbers instead of actual play. If there had been predictions like in the past, you'd see AV moving up 5000 to 10,000 points a day in this arena. I'd be willing to even state that the AV movement for this arena would have even been lower had past arenas hadn't used those predictions. People saw the results from past arenas and were shooting for numbers that were inflated even though the past arenas were also longer. Yes, to the people who actually spent fps in past arenas, you would have and should have spent less to get to AV and EV ranks. That being said, no one knows what will happen on the final day (today) as you can't predict what people are going to do since the factors that play into today are different than the factors that went into play on day 1, and are also different than the factors that went into days 2 through 9.
    Last edited by John944615; 12-27-2018 at 01:17 PM.

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    My post is not a prediction, that is the point I crossed over to AV rank.

    I played in the very first arena and can say it had the smallest gaps between rank level, but since that time the gap between 1st and 8th has become huge. In the 2nd arena the difference av and ev was large, the 3rd it became huge and this one is humongous.

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