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View Full Version : Are The Oracle treasure Chests a rip-off?



Syllabus
05-21-2010, 07:06 PM
What can your members expect to get from buying an Alpha Treasure Chest?

I am upset because I have bought five different times - two singles and a triple - and I got nothing of real value, certainly nothing worth any more than what I've earned through playing the game.

I have friends who got the Ork King, or some other great Hero/General ... I got Opelia. Big whoop.

I got a Sun Blade - worth two less att and seven less def points than the Holy Avenger blade I earned from fighting a Castle Battle. I got a 'fireball' worth only 5 att/zero def, and I've gotten much better loot from monsters and from questing: I EARNED Stone Skin, Pestilence and lightening storm. I got Elven Plate - worth less than the Hands of Bounty I earned from a Castle Battle. Where's the 'Epic' rewards?

Frankly I feel ripped off. I certainly won't give real money to you again.

Azraelswrd
05-21-2010, 07:09 PM
Ophelia is among the top 6 monster fighters in the game, surpassed by epic generals but with a ton of caveats:

Malekus -- need heroes
Azriel -- need archangels
Kull -- need marauders
Orc King -- need stamina
Lotus -- need to be lucky

Ophelia works great on world epic monsters the best, given that +25 p.atk bonus. Always look for that silver lining....

Syllabus
05-21-2010, 07:12 PM
Ophelia is among the top 6 monster fighters in the game, surpassed by epic generals but with a ton of caveats:

Malekus -- need heroes
Azriel -- need archangels
Kull -- need marauders
Orc King -- need stamina
Lotus -- need to be lucky

Ophelia works great on world epic monsters the best, given that +25 p.atk bonus. Always look for that silver lining....

I'll take that silver lining - thanks. I still won't give another 'real' penny to this game. I can do just as well without 'taking a chance' on getting the nothing I drew.

Azraelswrd
05-21-2010, 07:17 PM
Keep in mind that as the game evolves, that alpha chest looks worse and worse below the epic line. Everything below that, you can find things better from monsters. Power creep. Is it in you?

boiler
05-21-2010, 07:22 PM
just took a chance on onslaught chest.

2 commons and a common gallidor

said, hey ill try one more time.

got gallidor again. i gave up. save FP's for refills i say

gsapper
05-21-2010, 07:40 PM
I personally have gotten a bit of luck out of the chests

I have gotten

Ambrosia**
Percival
Sera Silverlight
Artanis
Sylvanas
and the Orc King.

msluce
05-21-2010, 08:32 PM
It's always a gamble with any chest. I've gotten Malekus, and I've gotten many sun blades. I've gotten Kull and Orc King, and I've gotten shadow panther and more sun blades. If you don't like the gamble, go with the monthly generals as needed. I don't go with chests too often any more, but every so often I take a go hoping for my Ambrosia.

Syllabus
05-21-2010, 08:32 PM
I personally have gotten a bit of luck out of the chests

I have gotten

Ambrosia**
Percival
Sera Silverlight
Artanis
Sylvanas
and the Orc King.

I'm glad for you.

Personally I have sworn off buying into the 'Treasure Chest' Lottery. Money comes too hard to play that game of chance. I'll earn my rewards in the quests and monster battles. I will succeed or I won't, but at least I will have spent only my time.

Lim Chee Hao
05-21-2010, 09:54 PM
What can your members expect to get from buying an Alpha Treasure Chest?

I am upset because I have bought five different times - two singles and a triple - and I got nothing of real value, certainly nothing worth any more than what I've earned through playing the game.

I have friends who got the Ork King, or some other great Hero/General ... I got Opelia. Big whoop.

I got a Sun Blade - worth two less att and seven less def points than the Holy Avenger blade I earned from fighting a Castle Battle. I got a 'fireball' worth only 5 att/zero def, and I've gotten much better loot from monsters and from questing: I EARNED Stone Skin, Pestilence and lightening storm. I got Elven Plate - worth less than the Hands of Bounty I earned from a Castle Battle. Where's the 'Epic' rewards?

Frankly I feel ripped off. I certainly won't give real money to you again.

Chances of getting a great general on every try: 5%
Chances of getting at least one great general with 5 tries: 1 - (0.95)^5 = 22.62%
No. of tries needed to have 50% channce of at least 1 great general: (lg 0.5)/(lg 0.95) = 13.513

You need to try about 9 more times for 50/50 chance. Don't give up! ;p

labalaba
05-22-2010, 12:47 AM
I would've thought it's pretty obvious..
5% chance means you need to try max 20 times at once to get any great general..
100x if you want all 4.. don't do it once awhile, do it all at once
server gets reset on a regular basis, I don't think they "saved" your last tries permanently.

Masterdo
05-22-2010, 01:29 AM
I would've thought it's pretty obvious..
5% chance means you need to try max 20 times at once to get any great general..
100x if you want all 4.. don't do it once awhile, do it all at once
server gets reset on a regular basis, I don't think they "saved" your last tries permanently.

They don't save your last tries at all. Where did you get that assumption? 5% means 5% every time, it's the same chances, not better in any way. In theory, you could buy 500 chests and not get a single General drop, that's what random is. It's just very very improbable, but definitely possible.

Syllabus
05-22-2010, 01:56 AM
Chances of getting a great general on every try: 5%
Chances of getting at least one great general with 5 tries: 1 - (0.95)^5 = 22.62%
No. of tries needed to have 50% chance of at least 1 great general: (lg 0.5)/(lg 0.95) = 13.513

You need to try about 9 more times for 50/50 chance. Don't give up! ;p

Just one question - you buyin'?

Not everyone can afford to gamble $20. (or more) for possible electronic toys. Statistically it could be as little as $20. BUT realistically every time I put a quarter in the slot machine, the odds are the same.

Lim Chee Hao
05-22-2010, 05:01 AM
Yeah, I did at first. After I didn't get any epics, I did my calculations and realised I could have bought a full PC game to get a 50% chance for Epic General.

Anyway, rewards for my USD45.00, 12 vanguard chests:

Common
2 Phantasm
3 Argentum Plate
1 Justice
1 Maelstrom
2 Illusia (General, refunded 30 FPs for the second one)

Uncommon
2 Boar Tusk Helm

Rare
1 Helena (General)

Left over FPs: 10.

I felt really stupid after doing the calculations, and proceeded to spend my next USD45.00 on oracle generals. At least those were 100%.:D

outofpoint
05-22-2010, 07:34 AM
alpha chests are good if you are lucky:

http://174.37.115.166/cforum/showpost.php?p=1085070&postcount=1

but yeah.

Ahmulag Ra
05-22-2010, 08:17 AM
What can your members expect to get from buying an Alpha Treasure Chest?

I am upset because I have bought five different times - two singles and a triple - and I got nothing of real value, certainly nothing worth any more than what I've earned through playing the game.

I have friends who got the Ork King, or some other great Hero/General ... I got Opelia. Big whoop.

I got a Sun Blade - worth two less att and seven less def points than the Holy Avenger blade I earned from fighting a Castle Battle. I got a 'fireball' worth only 5 att/zero def, and I've gotten much better loot from monsters and from questing: I EARNED Stone Skin, Pestilence and lightening storm. I got Elven Plate - worth less than the Hands of Bounty I earned from a Castle Battle. Where's the 'Epic' rewards?

Frankly I feel ripped off. I certainly won't give real money to you again.


It's called "gambling" - feeling ripped off because you gambled and didn't get what you wanted is called a life experience. No point whinging, just learn that you are not the kind of person who can take the disappointment associated with risk! ;)

This game is free to play - the chests are there for them to make money, not dish out the precise general you wanted.

Sorry to be harsh, but your OP is a joke.

Draconus
05-22-2010, 08:27 AM
Chances of getting a great general on every try: 5%
Chances of getting at least one great general with 5 tries: 1 - (0.95)^5 = 22.62%
No. of tries needed to have 50% channce of at least 1 great general: (lg 0.5)/(lg 0.95) = 13.513

You need to try about 9 more times for 50/50 chance. Don't give up! ;p

Those chances are not cumulative. Buy this chest, you have a 5% chance of getting an Epic. Buy 500 more chests, they each have that same 5% chance. Certainly the more times you buy means more chances of that 5% hitting. But each chest gets it's own fresh roll to find if it hits within that 5% or not.

I rather enjoy gambling on the chests now and again, I'll usually get 1 each week. And so far at least I believe I've enjoyed more luck on them then possibly I deserve.

Orc King
Serra Silverlight
Artanis
Azeron
Draconius
Isolde
Calista
Gallador
Anwar
Scourge
Kaylen from the Oracle
As well as Serene via Kobo and a few alchemy generals.

I know it's a gamble, I understand and accept the odds. I don't suffer from the same delusion so many fall to. That of thinking that after some magic number of attempts I deserve an epic.

Lim Chee Hao
05-22-2010, 08:33 AM
Those chances are not cumulative. Buy this chest, you have a 5% chance of getting an Epic. Buy 500 more chests, they each have that same 5% chance. Certainly the more times you buy means more chances of that 5% hitting. But each chest gets it's own fresh roll to find if it hits within that 5% or not.

I rather enjoy gambling on the chests now and again, I'll usually get 1 each week. And so far at least I believe I've enjoyed more luck on them then possibly I deserve.

Orc King
Serra Silverlight
Artanis
Azeron
Draconius
Isolde
Calista
Gallador
Anwar
Scourge
Kaylen from the Oracle
As well as Serene via Kobo and a few alchemy generals.

I know it's a gamble, I understand and accept the odds. I don't suffer from the same delusion so many fall to. That of thinking that after some magic number of attempts I deserve an epic.

It is cumulative in a way; it just doesn't add 5% chance for every chest you buy. Consider the chances of hitting an epic with 1 chest and hitting it with 100. You definitely have a much higher chance of hitting with 100 right? That is what I'm calculating. Look closely at the equation I used.

BubuLeMag
05-22-2010, 08:48 AM
Consider the chances of hitting an epic with 1 chest and hitting it with 100. You definitely have a much higher chance of hitting with 100 right?
Unfortunatly, no. Every try is independent, so you have 100 times 5% for an overall chance of... 5%. But it's a general mistake as it is against common senses.

Lim Chee Hao
05-22-2010, 09:03 AM
Unfortunatly, no. Every try is independent, so you have 100 times 5% for an overall chance of... 5%. But it's a general mistake as it is against common senses.

No, 100 time tries of 5% does NOT give a 5% chance. That's bad maths. I'll write a short explaination on this when I have time.

mudunpapat
05-22-2010, 10:01 AM
What can your members expect to get from buying an Alpha Treasure Chest?

I am upset because I have bought five different times - two singles and a triple - and I got nothing of real value, certainly nothing worth any more than what I've earned through playing the game.

I have friends who got the Ork King, or some other great Hero/General ... I got Opelia. Big whoop.

I got a Sun Blade - worth two less att and seven less def points than the Holy Avenger blade I earned from fighting a Castle Battle. I got a 'fireball' worth only 5 att/zero def, and I've gotten much better loot from monsters and from questing: I EARNED Stone Skin, Pestilence and lightening storm. I got Elven Plate - worth less than the Hands of Bounty I earned from a Castle Battle. Where's the 'Epic' rewards?

Frankly I feel ripped off. I certainly won't give real money to you again.
in last 7 months i spent more than 900 fp's but never ever got epic generals, apha, vanguard and onslaught tried them aLL my best chest genenal only tifanna, the other just serra silverlight and vulcan

but my 2nd char spent only around 300 fp in 7 months got silvana, orc king, illusia, ophelia, vorenus, serra and many more

dunno why

Lim Chee Hao
05-22-2010, 10:12 AM
Alright, done with my Stamina spam.

I spent some time thinking about how to explain Binomial Probabilty Distributions, but I never learnt to prove the equations, and I doubt you'd just accept an equation I threw at you. Therefore, i'm taking the easy way out and throwing you the Wikipedia link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_probability)

Using the die example right under the calculation subheader, we substiture dice for chests, "4s" for non-epics and "others" for epics:
P(3 non-epics and 0 epics) = P(3 non-epics) x P(0 epics) = P(non-epics)^3 x P(0 epics)^0 = (0.95)^3 x (0.05)^1 = 0.857375 x 1 = 86%

The above is an example of getting 0 epics in 3 chests. If what you said is true, the chances of getting a non-epic with 3 chests would be still be 95% which is NOT true.
I'm not saying that just because I've already opened 2 chests previously and not gotten any epics, my next try would have a better than 5% chance of generating an epic. I would still have the same 5% chance as everyone else. But if I open 3 chests, my chances of getting at least 1 epic is 100% - 86% = 14%. That's much better than someone who opens only 1 chest and has only 5% chance. It should also be noted that WHEN you open the chests don't matter. What does matter is HOW MANY chests you opened. So opening them all in 1 shot doesn't give you a better chance then someone who chooses to open 1 a week.

BTW BubuLeMag, it's precisely because every try is independant that my equation holds. Binomial Probability holds only if tries are independant of each other.

BubuLeMag
05-22-2010, 11:10 AM
Sure, I see your point, but binomial probability says that if you roll 3 chests, the probability that there is an epic in "one of the 3" is 14%. People will stop rolling after the epic, so it's not binomial probability.

Here, you can't say to people that the more they roll on chests, the more chances they have to get an epic because, as you said, the next roll will always have a 5% chance to get an epic.

But, as an advertisement for the french national lottery said : "100% of the winners have played".

SundayPunk
05-22-2010, 11:47 AM
If you're a higher level ( i'm lvl 195 for example ), the monthly generals are worth crap, i've already got enough generals around 20 / 20, so i don't spend my favor points on them.

When i took that decision, i decided to gamble on chests.
Never bought them, got them all from achievements

What i got :

-Ambrosia
-Aurora
-Azriel
-Skaar Deathrune
-Gallador
-Tiffana

Also got a Greater Fireball, and Angelic Crusade & Gallador's weapon.

It's all about luck, and i got pretty damn lucky :D

Lim Chee Hao
05-22-2010, 12:27 PM
Sure, I see your point, but binomial probability says that if you roll 3 chests, the probability that there is an epic in "one of the 3" is 14%. People will stop rolling after the epic, so it's not binomial probability.

In which case you start using the second equation and set n to the number of chests you've opened so far and k to 2.


Here, you can't say to people that the more they roll on chests, the more chances they have to get an epic because, as you said, the next roll will always have a 5% chance to get an epic.

But, as an advertisement for the french national lottery said : "100% of the winners have played".

Sure I can. And I'll bet it'll be statistically proven that those who buy 10 chests will be more likely to have an epic than those who only buy one.

BTW, I fail to see how the french lottery quote is related.

Syllabus
05-22-2010, 03:30 PM
in last 7 months i spent more than 900 fp's but never ever got epic generals, apha, vanguard and onslaught tried them aLL my best chest genenal only tifanna, the other just serra silverlight and vulcan

but my 2nd char spent only around 300 fp in 7 months got silvana, orc king, illusia, ophelia, vorenus, serra and many more

dunno why

Why is as some have said above - it's a gamble.

And yes I am whining, and upset ... venting ... more upset at myself for being stupid and gambling instead of spending those FPs on a sure thing like the monthly general or an energy/stamina boost to win something on a battleground or monster.

And apart from 'whining' as I vent, I am putting it out there for inexperienced players to see and hopefully learn that the 'Treasure Chests' are really a slot machine.

Gamble at your own risk, don't expect to be one of the lucky ones that round out the bell curve of winnings, and especially don't spend more than you can afford to lose.

Draconus
05-22-2010, 03:47 PM
BTW, I fail to see how the french lottery quote is related.

Just like with the Lotto, if you don't play you won't win. And the more tickets you buy, the more chances you have of one (or more) of those tickets popping a jackpot. It's a gamble, admittedly a gamble with better odds then any casino slot machine, but still a gamble. At the very worst you are assured of an item equal to or better then a Rare Drop from a Monster Battle. Perhaps by the time you reach level 700 or so such things might qualify as useless for invasions. But then if you have no interest in doing PvP, then most any of the generals aside from perhaps Orc King or Stone Guardian would qualify as useless. Because for most of the Epic generals, their primary value is in PvP. While OK and SG are the 2 Epics that offer the largest bonuses against monsters.

Vengence
05-22-2010, 03:58 PM
Frankly I feel ripped off. I certainly won't give real money to you again.

No! You got what was promised, a 5% chance to win an epic and so on.




But, as an advertisement for the french national lottery said : "100% of the winners have played".

They got that one right.



BTW, I fail to see how the french lottery quote is related.

It's revelent because the percentage of the winners that played is 100%. Which is the only 100% garentee you can honesty expect to receive when your gambling.

Syllabus
05-22-2010, 04:21 PM
If you're a higher level ( i'm lvl 195 for example ), the monthly generals are worth crap, i've already got enough generals around 20 / 20, so i don't spend my favor points on them.

When i took that decision, i decided to gamble on chests.
Never bought them, got them all from achievements

What i got :

-Ambrosia
-Aurora
-Azriel
-Skaar Deathrune
-Gallador
-Tiffana

Also got a Greater Fireball, and Angelic Crusade & Gallador's weapon.

It's all about luck, and i got pretty damn lucky :D

I agree. Your idea to earn all the best available generals and weapons until you were at an upper level and then to use your EARNED favor points to gamble was the smart thing to do.

My impatience co$t me.

Rutherford
05-22-2010, 04:43 PM
I've been happy with my rolls.

But, I don't have a single epic yet.

bigtymer
05-22-2010, 10:19 PM
You didn't get ripped off. You can see the odds before you roll and they are slim. You didn't even get unlucky. You just didn't get lucky like you were hoping.

Also.. if you think you got ripped off because you see people listing several epic generals they got then you should know that most likely they spent a bunch of money to get those. Everyone says they "got lucky" when they have a few of them because they don't want to admit they spent so much money. So unless you want to keep busting out the CC you're never going to get a line up like that.

gsapper
05-22-2010, 10:22 PM
Well my goal is to acquire every general possible xP. Though serene will take a crap load of time considering my luck O_o

dbird180
05-23-2010, 01:50 PM
Chances of getting a great general on every try: 5%
Chances of getting at least one great general with 5 tries: 1 - (0.95)^5 = 22.62%
No. of tries needed to have 50% channce of at least 1 great general: (lg 0.5)/(lg 0.95) = 13.513

You need to try about 9 more times for 50/50 chance. Don't give up! ;p

... but at over $10 a chance..... it's not worth the risk of drawing all commons:(... would rather use that money on refills and get more loot.:rolleyes: