Loot Drop

[galster69]

I've been trying to get the loot drop for the Land of Mist Special Mission. It states that the Lightening Storm is a 35% chance to drop. I have now completed the missing 10 times and STILL NO DROP!!! This is really ticking me off. I think these percentages for loot drop are all a bunch of crap. I have yet to find one loot that actually drops within the stated percentage. I've completed 20 missions for the energy missiles and only received 1. They say 10% chance to drop. I'm looking more at 5%. I'm very seriously thinking about saying screw castle age and finding something else to put my time into. Any advice?

[Lena Gkika]

I've been trying to get the loot drop for the Land of Mist Special Mission. It states that the Lightening Storm is a 35% chance to drop. I have now completed the missing 10 times and STILL NO DROP!!! This is really ticking me off. I think these percentages for loot drop are all a bunch of crap. I have yet to find one loot that actually drops within the stated percentage. I've completed 20 missions for the energy missiles and only received 1. They say 10% chance to drop. I'm looking more at 5%. I'm very seriously thinking about saying screw castle age and finding something else to put my time into. Any advice?

you are just unlucky. many have tried way more times, and others have got it on first or second try. I got it on the 3d. As for the energy bolts, i can say for sure that the percentage is definitely correct, maybe even slightly better. Till the update with the sub quests and the tiers, i spent weeks throwing my 150 energy in that mission. Since percentage is 10% and mission takes 5 energy to do it, i should get 3 spells/150 energy . I always got them, some times i even got 4 or 5. It is simple math, and your sample is small to judge.
It can be frustrating, i know, but numbers are correct

[Samuel Clemens]

If you think that's bad, wait until you try to get the amulet of Cefka...

[Falco]

Right. People seem to be overly optimistic about probabilities of multiple attempts. The past failures don't matter to the next attempt. The way the pure math goes, if you have a 10% probability to get something, that means there's a 90% chance you won't get it this time, 90% chance you won't get it next time, 90% chance you won't get it the time after that, etc. Even if you have already tried and failed to get it a million times, on your next attempt, there is STILL a 90% chance that you still won't get it.

[Darkal]

Right. People seem to be overly optimistic about probabilities of multiple attempts. The past failures don't matter to the next attempt. The way the pure math goes, if you have a 10% probability to get something, that means there's a 90% chance you won't get it this time, 90% chance you won't get it next time, 90% chance you won't get it the time after that, etc. Even if you have already tried and failed to get it a million times, on your next attempt, there is STILL a 90% chance that you still won't get it.

Don't I know it. Took me forever (25-30 times) to get one item to drop. I just kept reminding myself: "This why I don't gamble"!!

[Salketer]

People usually sees 10% chances meaning you'd get one in 10 tries... But if you mathematically calculate the chances that you will NOT get the item after 10 tries, you'd get 34.8% chances (again, of NOT getting it)... Which means, according to your way of figuring your chances, there is a chance you will get it 2 times every 10 tries.


Pushing it to the limits with 30 tries would give a 5% chance of not getting it... It still is kind of big (it's higher than winning another lottery ticket where I live, still people buy more...)

The mathematics used is simply 0.9^x where x is the number of tries... If you decide to do the maths, you will find out that that there is only 1 chance on 200 to fail getting the item in 50 tries... So before you wonder what's wrong, get to that number of fails and then try to remember if you broke a mirror in the past years cuz that would be the only reason for you to fail as much that I can think of. ;)

EDIT:
The only reason we use the chances of it NOT happening is because we are using numbers lower than 1 which multiplied together will always decrease. But your chances of getting something increases. I don't think there is another effective way of calculating this anyway... Just subtract the number you get to 1 (1-0.9^10 for the exemple) to see the chances to get the item...

[NeverSaidAgain]

You must be unlucky..I tried 10 times and I got 4..just a luck, not more..
I wish you'll get it next time..;)

[Falco]

Yes, Salketer, you're right. ;)

Probability theory presents interesting counter-intuitive paradoxes. Yes, it's very unlikely to fail to get it a million times in a row, but the million failures in a row don't matter in the next attempt. On the next attempt, there is still a 90% chance of not getting it again. So, technically, people simultaneously both underestimate and overestimate probability. In spite of the calculations dealing with consecutive failures, being unlucky a million times before still doesn't improve the person's chances of getting it the very next time. The probability of the past becomes 1, so if you're looking at the next 10 attempts, the probability of failure is only 30%, but if you're looking at 9 failed attempts in the past plus 1 future attempt, then the probability of failure is 90%.

[Ragnar]

Yes, Salketer, you're right. ;)

Probability theory presents interesting counter-intuitive paradoxes. Yes, it's very unlikely to fail to get it a million times in a row

How's this one: population size of the chooser makes unlikely events near certainties, across the population.

If the odds of something happening are 100,000 to 1, and you have 300 million people trying for it, odds are pretty good about 3,000 people got hosed. If the odds are 10,000,000 to 1 of dying by choking on a stick of gum a year, that still means that in the average year 30 people kick the bucket because they like to blow bubbles.

Those 3,000 all look at the 100,000 to 1 odds and say, "Man, that *never should have happened!*"... when actually that's pretty close to exactly what we would expect to happen.

Paraphrased: "Sucks to be that guy, sometimes."